2025年4月8日    11:42    星期二
基于概率盒理论的斜拉索腐蚀失效概率分析
作者:
作者单位:

(长沙理工大学 土木工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114)

通讯作者:

刘扬(1973—),男,教授,主要从事桥梁结构安全控制与可靠度分析方面的研究。E-mail: liuyangbridge@163.com

中图分类号:

U441

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52178108);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ30720)


Analysis of failure probability of corroded stay cable based on probability box theory
Author:
Affiliation:

(School of Civil Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

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    摘要:

    针对在役斜拉索腐蚀劣化过程中的不精确概率特征,采用概率盒(p-box)理论建立了斜拉索腐蚀失效的区间概率模型,研究了参数的认知不确定性对斜拉索失效概率的影响。数值分析结果表明:考虑参数的认知不确定性后,斜拉索失效概率区间上下界的差距十分明显,失效概率区间随着时间的增长逐渐加宽;在非海洋环境中,斜拉索失效概率对锈蚀扩散比[r]的敏感性最高;不确定性参数越多,所包含的认知不确定性就越大,斜拉索的失效概率区间也越宽,同时,置信水平的提高也会显著增大斜拉索的失效概率区间,因此为提高各置信水平的可信度须收集更多不确定性参数的数据。

    Abstract:

    In response to the inaccurate probability characteristics of the corrosion degradation process of in-service stay cables, this study utilizes the probability box (p-box) theory to establish the interval probability model of stay cable corrosion failure and investigates the influence of cognitive uncertainty of parameters on the failure probability of stay cables. Numerical analysis results show that after the cognitive uncertainty of parameters is considered, the gap between the upper and lower bounds of the failure probability interval of stay cables is highly distinct, and the failure probability interval progressively widens with time. In a non-marine environment, the failure probability of stay cables has the highest sensitivity to rust diffusion ratio r. The more the uncertain parameters considered, the greater the cognitive uncertainty involved, and the wider the failure probability interval of stay cables. At the same time, the improvement of the confidence level also significantly increases the failure probability interval of stay cables. To improve the credibility of each confidence level, more data of uncertain parameters need to be collected.

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刘扬,袁和平,鲁乃唯.基于概率盒理论的斜拉索腐蚀失效概率分析[J].交通科学与工程,2024,40(6):59-65.
LIU Yang, YUAN Heping, LU Naiwei. Analysis of failure probability of corroded stay cable based on probability box theory[J]. Journal of Transport Science and Engineering,2024,40(6):59-65.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-06
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-12-24
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