基于博弈论-云模型的城市道路塌陷风险评价
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

(1.苏州市市政管理中心,江苏 苏州 215002;2.悉地(苏州)勘察设计顾问有限公司,江苏 苏州 215123;3.东南大学 交通学院,江苏 南京 211189)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

侯兆军(1989—),男,高级工程师,主要从事城市生命安全线监测方面的研究工作。E-mail:houzjsz@163.com

中图分类号:

U492.8

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2020YFB1600102)


Risk evaluation of urban road collapse based on game theory-cloud model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Suzhou Municipal Administration Center, Suzhou 215002, China; 2.Xidi (Suzhou) Investigation and Design Consulting Co., Ltd., Suzhou 215123, China; Southeast University Transportation School, Nanjing 211189, China)

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    【目的】解决道路塌陷风险评价中主客观权重分配合理性不足、风险不确定及表征困难的问题,建立科学可靠的风险评价模型,为道路塌陷防治提供技术支持。【方法】从涉水管线、施工活动、自然环境和道路状态4个维度选取11项指标构建评价体系。采用主观赋权法(G1法)和客观赋权法(EW法)分别计算主客观权重,基于博弈论原理进行组合优化;结合云模型量化风险随机性与模糊性,通过期望值比对实现风险等级判定。【结果】以工程实例为背景,经对比分析发现:博弈论组合赋权较传统加法合成法指标间重要性差异程度显著强化,较乘法归一小指标偏差问题明显改善;4个评价单元风险等级分别为I级(低风险)、II级(中风险)、III级(高风险)、Ⅳ级(极高风险),评价单元的风险等级与探地雷达探明的地下病害体的分布、风险等级吻合度较高,评价准确率为77.8%。【结论】博弈论组合赋权有效平衡了G1法的主观经验局限与EW法的数据依赖缺陷,避开了传统组合赋权法的弊端,云模型通过期望值、熵、超熵三重参数客观表征风险边界,该方法可为城市道路塌陷风险动态评估提供可靠工具。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] To address the issues of insufficient rationality in the allocation of subjective and objective weights, risk uncertainty, and difficulties in risk characterization in road collapse risk assessment, this study aims to establish a scientific and reliable risk assessment model to provide technical support for road collapse prevention and control. [Methods] An evaluation system was constructed by selecting 11 indicators from four dimensions: water-related pipelines, construction activities, natural environment, and road conditions. Subjective weighting method (G1 method) and objective weighting method (EW method) were employed to calculate subjective and objective weights respectively, which were then combined and optimized based on game theory principles. The cloud model was utilized to quantify the randomness and fuzziness of risks, and risk levels were determined through expectation value comparison. [Findings] Against the backdrop of an engineering case, comparative analysis revealed that the game theory-based combined weighting significantly enhanced the differences in importance among indicators compared to the traditional additive synthesis method, and markedly improved the deviation issues of minor indicators compared to the multiplicative normalization method. The risk levels of the four evaluation units were classified as Level I (low risk), Level II (medium risk), Level III (high risk), and Level IV (extremely high risk), respectively. The risk levels of the evaluation units exhibited a high degree of agreement with the distribution and risk levels of underground defects detected by ground-penetrating radar, with an evaluation accuracy rate of 77.8%. [Conclusions] The game theory-based combined weighting effectively balances the subjective experience limitations of the G1 method and the data dependency flaws of the EW method, avoiding the drawbacks of traditional combined weighting methods. The cloud model objectively characterizes risk boundaries through three parameters: expectation value, entropy, and hyper-entropy. This method can serve as a reliable tool for dynamic assessment of urban road collapse risks.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

顾小建,侯兆军,方亮文,等.基于博弈论-云模型的城市道路塌陷风险评价[J].交通科学与工程,2026,42(2):33-41.
GU Xiaojian, HOU Zhaojun, .,et al. Risk evaluation of urban road collapse based on game theory-cloud model[J]. Journal of Transport Science and Engineering,2026,42(2):33-41.

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-30
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码