融合交通流传播特性的城市路网短时交通流预测
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作者单位:

(辽宁省交通运输事业发展中心,辽宁 沈阳 110005)

作者简介:

通讯作者:

陈博浩(1999—),男,助理工程师,主要从事智慧交通管控技术等方面的研究工作。E-mail:3097247863@qq.com

中图分类号:

U491.1

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71971060)


Short-term traffic flow prediction for urban road network incorporating traffic flow propagation characteristics
Author:
Affiliation:

(Traffic and Transportation Enterprise Development Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110005, China)

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    摘要:

    【目的】寻求一种数据利用效率较高、对交通流在路网中的传播机理可解释性较强的方法来解决城市路网短时交通流的预测问题。【方法】提出了一种融合交通流传播特性的城市路网短时交通流预测(NNLTM-TGAT)模型,以路段传输模型(LTM)为路网交通流模型,将传统不可微的交通流模型转化为可微的计算图,将交通流在路网中的传播机理融入计算图模型,并引入图注意力门控循环神经网络(GAT-GRU)模型提取城市路网交通流数据中时间和空间维度的特征信息,实现城市路网交叉口流向级的短时交通流预测。【结果】使用浙江省台州市中心城区部分路网的交通流量数据进行模型性能测试。结果表明,所提出的NNLTM-TGAT模型在早高峰、平峰、晚高峰场景下的流量均方根误差RRMSE分别为6.97、6.49、6.86辆/5 min,其预测性能均比对比模型的好。【结论】所提出的NNLTM-TGAT模型可以借助深度学习模型强大的高维时空建模能力与动态特征学习能力来提取原始数据中的时空特性,同时借助交通流传播机理的先验知识,在不同场景下取得较好的预测性能。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] This paper aims to seek a method with high data utilization efficiency and strong interpretability of the propagation mechanism of traffic flow in a road network to solve the short-term traffic flow prediction problem in urban road networks. [Methods] The paper proposed a short-term traffic flow prediction model for urban road networks (NNLTM-TGAT) that integrated traffic flow propagation characteristics. The model used the link transmission model (LTM) as the road network traffic flow model, converted the traditional non-differentiable traffic flow model into a differentiable computational graph, incorporated the propagation mechanism of traffic flow in the road network into the computational graph model, and introduced the graph attention gated recurrent neural network (GAT-GRU) model to extract feature information in the time and spatial dimensions from urban road network traffic flow data, achieving short-term traffic flow prediction at the intersection flow level in urban road networks. [Findings] The paper uses traffic flow data from a partial road network in the central urban area of Taizhou, Zhejiang Province for model performance testing. The results show that the NNLTM-TGAT model proposed in this paper achieves root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 6.97 vehicle, 6.49 vehicle, and 6.86 vehicle for 5-minute flow prediction in morning peak, off-peak, and evening peak scenarios, respectively, outperforming the comparative models in prediction performance. [Conclusions] The NNLTM-TGAT model proposed in this paper can leverage the powerful high-dimensional spatiotemporal modeling capabilities and dynamic feature learning abilities of deep learning models to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from raw data and utilize the prior knowledge of traffic flow propagation mechanisms to achieve better prediction performance in different scenarios.

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引用本文

陈博浩.融合交通流传播特性的城市路网短时交通流预测[J].交通科学与工程,2026,42(2):66-78.
CHEN Bohao. Short-term traffic flow prediction for urban road network incorporating traffic flow propagation characteristics[J]. Journal of Transport Science and Engineering,2026,42(2):66-78.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-30
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