基于堆叠模型的离场航空器飞行时间预测方法研究
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(1.中国民航大学 空中交通管理学院,天津 300300;2.中国民用航空中南地区空中交通管理局,广东 广州 510000)

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通讯作者:

赵元棣(1983—),男,副教授,主要从事智能空中交通系统方面的研究工作。E-mail: dyzhao@cauc.edu.cn

中图分类号:

V355

基金项目:

天津市教委科研计划项目(2023KJ239)


Stacking model-based flight time prediction methods for departure aircraft
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(1. College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China; 2. CAAC Central and Southern Air Traffic Management Bureau, Guangzhou 510000, China)

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    摘要:

    【目的】精确预测航空器离场阶段的飞行时间,提高空中交通管理效率,确保航空器运行的安全性与经济性。【方法】深入分析了航空器离场阶段的飞行特性,探讨了影响离场航空器飞行时间的各类因素。在此基础上,提取特征航迹点,并构建堆叠模型算法以优化离场航空器飞行时间的预测方法。该堆叠模型将神经网络、支持向量机和线性模型作为基学习器,旨在提升预测精度。同时,采用贝叶斯岭回归模型作为元学习器,对最终结果进行优化。设计消融试验,通过依次移除基学习器并构建仅包含剩余基学习器的堆叠子模型,对比各模型的预测性能,深入探索了不同模型间的互补机制,并计算了航空器运行过程中各类特征的重要度。【结果】堆叠模型在飞行时间预测任务上比单一基学习器表现优异,决定系数平均提升比例为18.8%。同时,不同离场方向对航空器的高度和纬度要求存在差异。【结论】与单一模型相比,堆叠模型展现出更强的泛化能力和准确性。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes]This paper aims to accurately predict the flight time of aircraft during the departure phase to improve air traffic management efficiency and ensure the safety and economy of aircraft operations. [Methods]The flight characteristics of aircraft during the departure phase were deeply analyzed, and various factors influencing the flight time of departing aircraft were discussed. On this basis, characteristic waypoints were extracted, and a stacking model algorithm was established to optimize the flight time prediction for departing aircraft. The stacking model integrates neural networks, support vector machines, and linear models as base learners to enhance prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, the Bayesian ridge regression model was adopted as the meta-learner to optimize the final results. Additionally, ablation experiments were designed. Base learners were sequentially removed, and stacked sub-models containing the remaining base learners were built to compare the prediction performance of each model and deeply explore the complementary mechanisms among different models, with the feature importance of various characteristics during aircraft operations also calculated. [Findings]The stacking model outperforms single base learners in flight time prediction tasks, with an average coefficient of determination improvement of 18.8%. Meanwhile, different departure directions impose varying requirements on aircraft altitude and latitude. [Conclusions]Compared to single models, the stacking model demonstrates superior generalization capability and accuracy.

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引用本文

赵元棣,崔英琪,刘珏.基于堆叠模型的离场航空器飞行时间预测方法研究[J].交通科学与工程,2026,42(3):11-19.
ZHAO Yuandi, CUI Yingqi, LIU Jue. Stacking model-based flight time prediction methods for departure aircraft[J]. Journal of Transport Science and Engineering,2026,42(3):11-19.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-08
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