基于SD和TOPSIS模型的交通拥堵治理评价研究
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河南工程学院 管理工程学院

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河南省科技厅科技攻关项目(222102210089)


Research on Evaluation of Traffic Congestion Management Based on SD and TOPSIS Models
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    摘要:

    交通是城市的重要组织部分,对城市形态的生成、发展以及演进都起着重要作用。城市发展,交通先行,城市对美好交通的向往是交通治理的奋斗目标,因此有必要从定性和定量相结合的视角对交通拥堵治理策略效果进行评价,不断提升交通治理的效果,从而推动城市交通高质量可持续发展。为了对城市交通拥堵治理效果进行评价,本文提出了一种基于组合模型的研究方法。首先从城市经济、人口、环境、交通构成的反馈关系出发构建了城市交通拥堵治理的SD模型。在对SD模型验证、敏感性分析的基础上,对交通拥堵治理效果进行仿真分析,得出了交通拥堵、环境污染、机动车出行量、车均道路面积的动态变化趋势。然后采用TOPSIS模型对交通拥堵治理效果进行评价。结果表明在目前治理力度下组合策略的治理效果要优于单一策略,单一限行、发展公共交通策略、限购策略的效果仅有限行+限购+发展公共交通+增加道路投资策略的51.2%、31.5%、30.7%。在研究方法上,如果有更为精细城市经济、人口、环境、交通方面的数据,可以更为细化城市交通拥堵治理的SD模型。TOPSIS模型采用了SD仿真数据的平均值,下一步需要采用时间序列TOPSIS模型对治理效果进行更为客观的评价。另外还可以构建多城市的交通拥堵治理SD模型,采用DEA模型对治理效率进行评价。

    Abstract:

    Transportation is an important organizational part of a city, playing an important role in the generation, development, and evolution of urban form.Urban development prioritizes transportation, and the city"s desire for better transportation is the goal of traffic management. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic congestion management strategies from a combination of qualitative and quantitative perspectives, continuously improving the effectiveness of traffic management, and promoting high-quality and sustainable development of urban transportation. In order to evaluate the management effectiveness of urban traffic congestion, this paper proposes a research method based on composite models. Firstly, the SD model of urban traffic congestion management is constructed from the feedback relationship of urban economy, population, environment and traffic composition. Based on the validation and sensitivity analysis of the SD model, simulation analysis was conducted on the management effectiveness of traffic congestion, and the dynamic trends of traffic congestion, environmental pollution, motor vehicle travel volume, and average road area per vehicle were obtained. Then, the TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the management effectiveness of traffic congestion. The results show that under the current management efforts, the management effect of the combination strategy is better than that of a single strategy. The effect of a single strategy of limited travel, development of public transportation, and purchase restriction is only 51.2%, 31.5%, and 30.7% of the strategies of limited travel, purchase restriction, development of public transportation, and increase in road investment. In terms of research methods, the SD model of urban traffic congestion management can be more refined if there are more detailed data on urban economy, population, environment and traffic. The TOPSIS model uses the average of SD simulation data, and the next step is to use the time series TOPSIS model to objectively evaluate the management effectiveness. In addition, an SD model for traffic congestion management in multiple cities can be constructed, and the DEA model can be used to evaluate the management efficiency.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-10
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-07
  • 录用日期:2024-10-10
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