考虑区域时空关联特征的港口群PM??浓度预测
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1.河海大学 土木与交通学院;2.河海大学 3.港口海岸与近海工程学院

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Prediction of PM?? Concentration in Port Clusters Considering Regional Spatiotemporal Correlation Features
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    摘要:

    【目的】为克服现有预测模型忽略相邻港口间环境空气质量时空关联特征的不足,构建了一种基于交叉注意力机制并行融合图卷积神经网络(GCN)与时序卷积神经网络(TCN)的深度学习组合模型(GCN-TCN-CA),提高干散货港口群PM??小时浓度的预测性能。【方法】基于不同港口监测的浓度和特征气象因素,分别通过GCN提取港口间的空间拓扑特征和TCN捕获污染物浓度与气象因素的长期时序依赖性,并利用交叉注意力机制动态融合时空特征后预测港口群的浓度。【结果】以南京沿江18个港口为例,与6个预测模型的性能对比结果表明,GCN-TCN-CA可以将平均绝对误差降低10.5%~31.8%,均方根误差降低8.87%~28.28%,拟合优度提高2.38%~13.95%。此外,模型的消融实验表明,GCN对组合模型预测性能的贡献最显著。【结论】充分考虑相邻港口间PM??浓度的时空关联特征,可以显著提高深度学习组合模型的预测性能。在制定PM??污染控制措施时,需要充分考虑相邻港口间污染物传输和扩散的影响,以协同提升港口群环境空气质量。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] To overcome the limitations of existing prediction models that overlook the spatiotemporal correlation characteristics of ambient air quality between adjacent ports, a deep learning ensemble model (GCN-TCN-CA) is established on the basis of cross-attention mechanism to parallel fusion graph convolutional neural network (GCN) and temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)., thereby enhancing the predictive performance of PM?? hourly concentrations for dry bulk port clusters. [Methods] Based on the PM?? concentrations and characteristic meteorological factors at different ports, the spatial topological features between ports can be extracted by GCN, while the long-term temporal dependency between pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors can be captured by TCN. Besides, the PM?? concentrations at the port clusters can be predicted via dynamically fusing the spatial and temporal features using the cross-attention mechanism. [Findings] Taking 18 ports along the Yangtze River in Nanjing are selected as examples, and the prediction performance comparison between six models demonstrates that the GCN-TCN-CA model can reduce mean absolute error by 10.5% to 31.8%, root mean square error by 8.87% to 28.28% and enhance goodness of fit by 2.38% to 13.95%. Additionally, ablation experiments on the models reveal that the GCN can made the most significant contribution to the overall predictive performance of GCN-TCN-CA model. [Conclusions] By fully considering the spatiotemporal correlation characteristics of PM?? concentrations between adjacent ports, the predictive performance of deep learning ensemble models can be significantly improved. When formulating PM?? pollution control measures, it is essential to fully consider the impacts of pollutant transport and dispersion among adjacent ports to achieve synergistic improvements in the ambient air quality of the port cluster.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-11
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-29
  • 录用日期:2025-09-30
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