[Purposes] In order to investigate the long-term potential risks posed by the moisture-induced deformation of mudstone road embankments, this study focuses on moisture-sensitive mudstone roadbeds, aiming to provide an effective method for predicting their deformation. [Methods] This study employs a combination of computational methods and numerical simulations to investigate the deformation characteristics of roadbed heaving under wetting conditions, revealing the influence patterns of different mudstone densities, surface water contents, and construction disturbance conditions on the heaving deformation of mudstone roadbeds. [Findings] The results indicate that under the same wetting conditions of the subgrade surface mudstone, the arching deformation of the subgrade at different time periods shows a sharp increase in deformation on both sides of the subgrade, while the deformation in the central area of the subgrade gradually slows down. The greater the wetting degree of the subgrade surface, the more significant the overall deformation of the subgrade. Moisture diffusion along the depth gradually stabilizes, and at a subgrade depth of 5 meters, the difference in wetting degree is less than 5%. After disturbance of the subgrade surface mudstone, subgrade deformation increases with the level of disturbance, and the deformation gradually exhibits an "M"-shaped trend, with the increase in deformation on both sides of the subgrade being more pronounced than in the central area. [Conclusions] This study indicates that the vertical deformation of the subgrade under various factors primarily depends on the degree of moisture in the mudstone at different subgrade depths. The findings of this research can provide a reference for the management of hoisting deformation in mudstone subgrades due to wetting in subsequent works.