基于低秩分解理论的地铁网络异常客流识别研究
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1.江西省交通设计研究院有限责任公司;2.江西交通职业技术学院 建筑工程学院

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U121

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江西省交通运输厅科技项目(2023H0033)


Low-rank decomposition theory for metro network outlier passenger flow detection
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Science and Technology Project of the Department of Transportation of Jiangxi Province (2023H0033)

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    摘要:

    【目的】为提升各类事件下的地铁运营服务质量,高效识别网络异常客流至关重要。【方法】利用常态条件下地铁客流(简称“常态客流”)的周期性,首先将各类事件下的观测客流定义为常态客流和事件额外引发的异常客流之和,从而将网络异常客流识别问题建模为矩阵分解问题;然后利用常态客流矩阵的低秩性特征和异常客流矩阵的稀疏性特征,进一步将该矩阵分解问题转化为凸优化问题,对应设计加速近端梯度求解算法;最后考虑识别规模、事件频率和客流随机波动幅度等场景要素,利用各类仿真场景和我国南方某一城市的真实地铁客流场景进行模型验证【结果】结果表明:异常客流识别精度与客流随机波动幅度呈负相关,在各类仿真场景中目标模型的识别精度达到73.67%以上,显著高于传统的移动平均模型、基于Loess的分解模型和鲁棒主成分分析模型;在真实地铁客流场景中,目标模型可有效降低随机波动客流的干扰,进、出站异常客流识别精度分别达到77.42%和78.07%,精度同样最高。【结论】目标模型不仅具有较强的异常客流识别鲁棒性,同时模型输出代表了由事件额外引发的网络客流变化信息,可为应急资源调配提供数据支撑。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] To improve traffic service quality under various events, it is vital to efficiently detect network outlier traffic flow. [Methods] Considering the periodic characteristics of typical traffic flow under normal conditions (short for "normal traffic flow"), we first define the observed traffic flow during various events as the sum of normal traffic flow and abnormal traffic flow caused by the events. It allows us to model the network outlier traffic flow detection problem as a matrix decomposition problem. Next, by leveraging the low-rank property of the normal traffic flow matrix and the sparsity property of the outlier traffic flow matrix, the matrix decomposition problem is further converted into a convex optimization problem. An accelerated proximal gradient solution algorithm is proposed accordingly. Finally, we consider the scenario elements including detection scale, event frequency, and the magnitude of random traffic flow fluctuations, and the model is validated using both simulated data and real-world metro passenger flow data from a city in Southern China. [Findings] The results demonstrate that the accuracy of outlier traffic flow detection is negatively correlated with the magnitude of random fluctuations of traffic flow under normal conditions. In various simulation scenarios, the detection accuracy of the proposed model achieves over 73.67%, which is significantly higher than traditional models. In the real-world metro passenger flow scenario, the target model effectively reduces the interference of random passenger flow, and the detection accuracies for entry and exit flow are 77.42% and 78.07%, respectively, also achieving the highest accuracy. [Conclusions] The proposed model not only exhibits strong robustness in outlier traffic flow detection, but the output also reflects the traffic flow change caused by the events, and provides data support for emergency resource allocation.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-14
  • 录用日期:2025-12-14
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