城市快速路匝道合流区多组合短时交通量预测模型
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1.长沙理工大学 交通学院;2.中南大学 交通与运输工程学院

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湖南省科技创新计划项目;湖南省研究生科研创新项目


A multi-component short-term traffic volume prediction model for merging areas of urban expressways
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    摘要:

    【目的】针对现有城市快速路交通量预测方法未能充分考虑匝道合流行为及交通流时空动态性等问题。【方法】提出了一种面向城市快速路匝道合流区的多输入单输出短时交通量预测模型。将改进的麻雀搜索算法与卷积双向长短期记忆网络相结合,以均方误差为适应度函数,利用AL-SSA对CNN-BiLSTM的学习率、隐藏层单元数和L2正则化系数等关键超参数进行自适应优化,并将最优超参数用于模型训练。【结果】基于长沙市快速路实测数据的算例表明,与SSA-CNN-BiLSTM等基线模型相比,所建ALSSA-CNN-BiLSTM模型性能更优,在15 min预测步长下,MAE、RMSE和SMAPE分别降低了5.58%、10.10%和5.52%。【结论】该模型在预测精度和稳定性方面均优于既有算法,能够更有效刻画匝道合流区多源时空特征,为城市快速路短时交通量预测及运行状态评估提供了具有前瞻性和实用性的技术路径。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] To address the limitations of existing traffic flow forecasting methods, which fail to adequately account for the merging behaviour of urban expressway ramps and the spatio-temporal dynamics of traffic flows. [Methods] A multi-input single-output traffic flow prediction model for convergence zones is proposed. The integration of an enhanced Arnold and Levy sparrow search algorithm (AL-SSA) with convolutional neural networks-bidirectional long short-term memory (CNN-BiLSTM) is considered to enhance predictive accuracy and adaptive capabilities. To mitigate the impact of hyperparameter uncertainty and manual tuning costs within the CNN-BiLSTM framework, the AL-SSA is designed to dynamically optimise three critical hyperparameters: the number of hidden units, the initial learning rate, and the L2 regularisation coefficient. The optimised parameters are subsequently employed to train the CNN-BiLSTM network. [Findings] Experimental validation on the Changsha real-world dataset demonstrates that the proposed ALSSA-CNN-BiLSTM model outperforms baseline models such as SSA-CNN-BiLSTM. At a 15-minute prediction horizon, it achieves reductions of 7.59%, 8.67% and 7.64% in MAE, RMSE and SMAPE respectively. [Conclusions] Compared to existing algorithms, this model demonstrates enhanced accuracy and stability. By providing more precise short-term traffic information, it can improve road traffic conditions, offering a forward-looking and practical technical approach for urban traffic flow forecasting.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-20
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-06
  • 录用日期:2026-01-07
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