高速公路扩容路线工程可持续性评价方法研究
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贵州省交通规划勘察设计研究院股份有限公司

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U412

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贵州省交通运输厅2021年度科技项目(2021-141-037);贵州省交通规划勘察设计研究院股份有限公司自立科研项目(ZLKY2026002)


Research on Sustainability Assessment Methods for Expressway Expansion Projects
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    摘要:

    【目的】 针对高速公路扩容路线工程全生命周期可持续性评价中传统方法忽视经济、社会、环境、技术指标动态耦合关系的问题,构建系统动力学(SD)与模糊多准则决策耦合的评价体系,为路线工程规划设计与方案比选提供方法支撑。【方法】 基于道路工程可持续发展理论,构建经济、社会、环境、路线技术运营四维度评价指标体系;通过系统动力学模型模拟扩容路线工程25年全生命周期核心指标动态演变,结合三角模糊数与层次分析法-逼近理想解排序法(AHP-TOPSIS)处理评价不确定性并完成路线方案量化比选。【结果】 以G6002贵阳环城高速扩容路线工程为实证,系统动力学仿真显示:2047年路线日均交通量较2023年增长28.90%,GDP带动率提升76.50%,但碳排放量增长42.51%,环境压力呈持续上升趋势;模糊AHP-TOPSIS决策表明,局部改扩建结合新建的组合路线方案综合最优,综合贴近度达0.76,在投资、交通功能提升、社会影响等方面实现平衡,且经蒙特卡洛模拟验证鲁棒性较强。【结论】 耦合评价方法能够有效捕捉路线工程全生命周期指标动态演变并处理专家判断模糊性,可为高速公路扩容路线工程可持续性评价提供了适配工程实际的量化决策工具。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To address the issue that traditional methods in the full life-cycle sustainability assessment of highway expansion projects overlook the dynamic interrelationships among economic, social, environmental, and technical indicators, this study establishes an evaluation framework that integrates System Dynamics (SD) with fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making. This framework aims to provide methodological support for the planning, design, and alternative selection of highway expansion projects. [Methods] Based on the theory of sustainable development in road engineering, a four-dimensional evaluation indicator system was established covering economic, social, environmental, and route technical operation dimensions; a System Dynamics model was used to simulate the dynamic evolution of core indicators over the 25-year full life cycle of the expansion project; uncertainty in the evaluation was addressed using triangular fuzzy numbers and the Analytic Hierarchy Process-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (AHP-TOPSIS) to complete the quantitative comparison of route alternatives. [Results] Using the G6002 Guiyang Ring Expressway expansion project as a case study, system dynamics simulations show that by 2047, the route’s average daily traffic volume will increase by 28.90% compared to 2023, and the GDP multiplier effect will rise by 76.50%; however, carbon emissions will increase by 42.51%, and environmental pressure will continue to rise. Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS decision analysis indicates that the combined route scheme—integrating local upgrades and expansions with new construction—is the most optimal overall, with a comprehensive proximity index of 0.76. This scheme achieves a balance in terms of investment, traffic functionality enhancement, and social impact, and demonstrates strong robustness as verified by Monte Carlo simulation. [Conclusion] The coupled evaluation method effectively captures the dynamic evolution of full-lifecycle indicators for route projects and addresses the uncertainty in expert judgments, providing a quantitative decision-making tool tailored to engineering practice for the sustainability assessment of expressway expansion projects.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-09
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-16
  • 录用日期:2026-06-17
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