RS-MCMC:一种结构时变可靠度分析方法
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长沙理工大学 土木与环境工程学院

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TB114.3

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国家自然科学(52408154)


RS-MCMC: A Structural Time-Variant Reliability Analysis Method
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China(52408154)

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    摘要:

    【目的】工程结构服役期的荷载效应与结构抗力具有不确定性与时变性,需通过时变可靠度理论评估其安全性。由于现有时变可靠度方法在高度非线性结构中存在精度与效率问题,本文提出基于环模拟与马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛的结构时变可靠度分析方法(ring simulation markov chain monte carlo, RS-MCMC)。【方法】RS-MCMC引入高斯-勒让德求积法解决时变可靠度中的时间积分难题,将时变可靠度转化为少数几个时刻点上的时不变可靠度问题求解;并提出一种逐步计算方案自适应调整重要区间的范围,引入马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法生成样本;最后以重要区间内的样本估计时变可靠度,对三个典型案例与一个工程案例进行时变可靠度评估。【结果】评估结果显示,该方法在涉及高度非线性等复杂问题中表现出显著优势且综合性能最优,具备良好的准确性、高效性及鲁棒性。【结论】RS-MCMC方法的提出丰富了时变可靠度分析方法,并凭借其独特的逐步计算方案为时变可靠度分析方法的创新性研究提供了新的思路。相较于现有时变可靠度分析方法,RS-MCMC在复杂时变可靠度问题的求解中展现出更加优越的综合性能。

    Abstract:

    [Purposes] The load effects and structural resistances during the service period of engineering structures are uncertain and time-variant. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their safety through the time-variant reliability theory. Since the existing time-variant reliability methods have problems with accuracy and efficiency in highly nonlinear structures, this paper proposes a structural time-variant reliability analysis method based on Ring simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo. [Methods] RS-MCMC introduces the Gauss-Legendre quadrature method to solve the time integration problem in time-variant reliability and transforms the time-variant reliability into a time-invariant reliability problem at a few time points for solution. A stepwise calculation scheme is proposed to adaptively adjust the range of the important domain, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is introduced to generate samples within the important domain. Finally, the time-variant reliability is estimated using the samples within the important domain, and the time-variant reliability of three typical cases is evaluated. [Findings] The evaluation results show that this method exhibits significant advantages in complex problems involving high nonlinearity and has the optimal comprehensive performance, with good accuracy, efficiency, and robustness. [Conclusions] RS-MCMC enriches the time-variant reliability analysis methods and provides new ideas for the innovative research of time-variant reliability analysis methods with its unique stepwise calculation scheme. Compared with the existing time-variant reliability analysis methods, RS-MCMC shows more superior comprehensive performance in solving complex time-variant reliability problems.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-18
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-18
  • 录用日期:2026-05-19
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